Nikon in 2n half of 2012: D400, D600... or what?

I am a happy user of a Nikon D3100. I have a couple of lenses: 18-55mm VR kit; 35mm DX f/1.8 and Tamron (for DX) 18-270mm VC PZD. I also have some bags and a couple of tripods.

What do I shoot? Well anything, and nothing. I’m merely an aficionado, not sure if I can call myself amateur or enthusiast, but I do have fun with it! And now I’m thinking about upgrading my camera.

Before I go on, I don’t need anything else than what my D3100 offers, but sometimes it’d be nice to have faster focus, faster burst rate, handy buttons instead of menues and a bigger camera body (the D3100 is tiny). Take a look at Matt Granger’s rant on amateurs buying better (or pro) gear.

Since I don’t have very specific needs, I decided that what I want isn’t in the market yet. I know I want a Nikon and a better camera than what I have today. So let’s try to guess what may happen…

I think it’s best to start with the current line up, the history release, and work from there (the prices are body only). I also have to say that these are not predictions, but wild guessing

Some disclaimers here. I did put the D4 and family there for the sake of having the full Nikon line up. Some will argue that the D800 is not the D700’s successor, and while that may be true the D700 isn’t any longer (26.7.2012) in Nikon’s site.

But what’s gonna happen in the rest of 2012? The D400 has been long rumored to be the natural successor of the D300, but there are even more rumors of the D600, which would be an ”entry level FX” camera, whatever that means.

Let’s start bottom up then:

Entry DSLR DX

We’re at the bottom of DX domain here, and by all looks we’ll get a D3300 in 2013. More than 24 Mp would be nonsense. What then? Maybe another metallic color ...

Entry DSLR DX with tilty-swively screen

Canon has the 60D and now the 650D with capacitive touch tilty-swively screen. I guess 2013 (maybe earlier) it’s time for Nikon to launch the D5200, with 24 Mp, and capacitive touch tilty swively screen. (I don’t like them…)

Amateur DSLR DX

Following the apparent 2 years release cycle, they could unveil the D7100 in Photokina with 24 Mp, some nice video capabilities and (even) better ISO capabilities. That’d be my definite go to! Unless…

Now it gets tricky… I don’t think that a D600 and a D400 will coexist.

If the D600 becomes an ”entry FX” as suggested elsewhere, what we’d have is a D7100 with FX. What would be the price? Would they canibalize each other? To get a current pro body you’d need to spend 3000€ in a D800? What’s between D600 and D800? (And the ”old D700” isn’t the answer here).

If the D400 is just the successor of the D300, we’d get a pro body (big fat magnesium alloy, without silly-looking-scene selector) in DX. That would certainly please wild life shooters: fast focus, plus longer focal length with the 1.5x crop factor of the DX. But… you’d had to spend 3000€ to go to FX?

I’m not so interested in the future of D800 and D4. For one reason they were just released. For another one, they’re way out of my budget.

I’m confused by the D400 vs D600 dilema. I’d rather have a D300-like camera body, but FX is very tempting. It'd be smart from Nikon to release an affordable FX body: they would swim in money coming from FX glass!

I guess we’ll know more in Photokina 2012! It looks to me that whichever option they release (D400 or D600) that will be my camera. If they release both, then I'll have a problem.

PS: few pictures in Flickr taken with my loved D3100